Intensifying Rhetorical Battle Among Ethiopia and Eritrean Government Raises Anxieties of Conflict

Increasing apprehensions exist over the chance of warfare among East African countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile language has intensified in the last month.

Red Sea coastline
Ethiopia and Eritrea were allies in the armed struggle in Tigray but they have subsequently disagreed.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has triggered a heated war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in last year that his country's maritime access was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrea dismissed.

Ties between the both governments have regularly been difficult. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopia in 1993, rendering it without sea access.

Subsequently, a military clash erupted in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Recent Comments from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and suggested the desire to capture it through military means.

In early September, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "addressed tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

Amid persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to brief comments on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for maritime entry calling it "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "irredentism" – a strategy of retaking lost territory.

Government spokespeople alerted on mid-September that moves to validate "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Ground

So far, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the border areas between the both nations.

However, in the country, national TV has broadcast completion events of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The head of staff section of the military, the officer, recently said in an conversation that the military was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Historical Origins of the Tension

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was governed by Italian rulers.

After World War II, it was then administered by the British military before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

But in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor terminated this system and the region became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle followed, ending with military reversal in 1991. Autonomy was then endorsed by Eritreans in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the specific demarcation of their common border, leading to conflict in 1998.

Even though this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the both countries stayed at odds.

This changed in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two endorsed a announcement that the hostilities was finished – a decision that won the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The both administrations were then cooperators in the country's 2020-2022 internal conflict in Tigray.

But ties have since broken down anew.

Aaron Garcia
Aaron Garcia

Marcus Thorne is a UK-based business strategist with over 15 years of experience in digital transformation and enterprise consulting.